Weeks where decades happen
Two views on the insanity the last few weeks
The news cycle since Biden committed political seppuku on live television has been overwhelmingly negative for Democrats and positive for Republicans. The debate itself called into serious question Biden's ability to campaign successfully and win, not to mention do the job of President for another four years. His responses to calls for him to step aside have only exacerbated this issue, as he has done little to assuage fears about his mental acuity and has instead adopted a Trumpian approach to criticism in which he stubbornly refuses to face facts and angrily responds with defensiveness and defiance. Not a great look for the person whose legacy was supposed to have been saving us from Trump.
As expected, the polls were unkind to Biden in the weeks since and the Trump campaign wisely stayed out of the spotlight as Democratic concerns about Biden’s capability makes their case for them. It was a good time to be Trump.
Then we had the Supreme Court's decision, surprising to most legal experts (including many of the Federalist Society ilk), which granted presidents sweeping immunity and cast doubt on the future of the Trump cases, including the one he already lost. While the jury is still out (ha) on what exactly this will mean, any trace of a chance that his other cases would go to trial before the election seems to be off the table (and if he wins, he's expected to be able to dismiss the federal cases). More good news for Trump, who for once can honestly claim to have the law on his side.
Then, the attempted assassination. While a horrific event for America, and certainly a terrifying one for Trump himself, the political impact seems likely to be positive for him as well, thanks in large part to his incredible response (and photos of that response) in the moment. The debate had already done wonders for setting up a contrast between a strong Trump and weak Biden, and his defiance in the face of mortal danger has effectively set that perception in concrete. I'm sure Republicans would have preferred clear evidence that the shooter was motivated by left-wing ideology and partisan motives (as many of them prematurely claimed), which so far does not appear to be the case. But still, Trump's survival and response, not to mention the sympathy such an experience garners, must be seen as a positive for his electoral chances.
Then, Aileen Cannon dismissed his classified documents case. The grounds are widely viewed to be specious and likely to be overruled on appeal, but it's yet another opportunity for Trump to claim that the cases against him are without merit.
On the back of all of this, the Republican National Convention is understandably riding high on a sense of unity, momentum and inevitability. This may have contributed to Trump's choice of J.D. Vance as his running-mate. Vance has made a name for himself by abandoning his former anti-Trump vitriol in favor of total support, while applying an intellectual veneer to Trumpian populism. He's not who you'd pick if you were worried about losing moderate swing voters, as it's unclear who (besides perhaps a few more rust-belt working class voters) Vance appeals to beyond the already converted MAGA base. But if you feel victory is a near certainty, he's a more loyal, reliable and ideologically compatible choice than someone like Marco Rubio. Rubio would have done more to keep uneasy "Reagan Republicans" on-side, Haley's attempt at neocon-washing the Trump agenda notwithstanding. But at a moment like this, Trump clearly felt comfortable going with the least Pence-y choice.
Can we blame him? Democrats are in utter disarray and Biden has done more to sabotage his legacy in the last few weeks than I would have thought possible just one month ago. So, what happens from here?
The Republican Victory Narrative
The prevailing narrative, and the most probable one according to current trends and polls, is that the GOP is in pole position for not just a victory in the presidential election, but also taking control of Congress - potentially by a large margin. I personally think this narrative will prove true if Biden stays in the race. Yes, the trends might stall or even reverse a bit after Biden gets formally nominated and the movement to replace him accepts defeat. At that point we can expect the anti-Trump coalition to focus their attention and messaging on the many vulnerabilities of Trump and Vance and remind most Americans why they've rejected their movement in nearly every competitive race since 2020. But I think the Democrats are cooked at the top of the ticket. It's very hard to make the case that Trump is unfit while advocating for Biden, who is unfit for different reasons. Some, like me, will argue that "unfit and malign" is still worse than "unfit and benign" but it's still a crap message.
The Democratic Victory Narrative
On the other hand, I think there's a possibility that we look back on this period and see that the Republicans actually had too much good luck. One of the ironies following Biden's debate performance is that while it did more to advance the right-wing narrative of Biden being senile than any of their selectively edited video clips did in the previous years, it was also so successful that it caused Democrats themselves to seriously consider replacing him. If Biden had merely a mixed performance, something slightly worse than his State of the Union address but not completely disastrous, Republicans might not have received quite the same polling boost, but the Biden campaign would also have been able to cruise toward nomination without a mass revolt.
The debate performance, combined with the subsequent events like the immunity decision which have raised the stakes of a Trump victory (who may now be emboldened to test even more limits as president), combined with the momentum-boost Trump has received in the last week, has all but removed any lingering uncertainty about Biden's strength relative to other potential Democratic candidates. It may turn out that this avalanche of good news for Republicans is what it took to break through Biden's resistance and result in him stepping out of the race, as recent news reports suggest may be starting to happen.
If that happens, Democratic victory is still far from assured, but it would absolutely shift the narrative. All attention would be on the Democrats and how they choose a nominee. A Harris coronation would, in my opinion, be an improvement over the current trajectory and likely stem their losses in November, but I’m doubtful that it would be a game-changer. An open process, in which we see multiple candidates such as Gretchen Whitmer, Gina Raimondo, Wes Moore, Josh Shapiro and yes, Kamala Harris compete for the nomination at the convention, would be chaotic but also invigorating. A campaign that felt like a sleep-walk to defeat would be replaced by an exciting introduction to some of the Democrats’ most impressive rising stars. Overnight, Trump's strength relative to Biden would become weakness relative to a younger, sharper opponent. America's thirst for an alternative to a geriatric rematch would finally find relief, and the momentum would finally be on the Democrats' side.
This result is not inevitable should Biden step down, but it strikes me as likely. There is risk - whoever the Democrats choose would not have survived the normal primary vetting process and may have vulnerabilities and weaknesses that get overlooked in the desperate search for someone - anyone - besides Biden. But it will throw a massive wrench in Republicans' plans and confidence, and with just a few months before the election, doesn't give them much time to adapt. Republicans may have the wind at their backs now, but they still have an incredibly flawed and unpopular candidate and if Democrats get their act together and meet the moment with the courage it demands, things may be looking very different in a couple of months. And it may only have been possible thanks to Trump's incredible run of good luck.