Polling of the 2024 presidential election has made it clear for months that Americans are not happy with their choices this time around. Tonight, we saw why they’re right. Trump put on one of his more restrained and articulate performances but was still a completely unabashed liar and asshole. Biden’s performance was abysmal.
I like Biden. I voted for him in 2020 and despite rhetoric that often catered to the far left in ways I found disappointing, he has governed as a rather effective centrist. He’s made mistakes as any president has (Afghanistan and the border being the more egregious examples), but he’s also passed a lot of bipartisan legislation which poured investment into less-affluent areas (including many red states), has been tough on China, supportive and responsible in his support of Ukraine and Israel, oversaw a “soft-landing” after the COVID-induced spike in inflation (which was a global phenomenon that was worse in many other affluent countries) and in many ways exceeded my expectations as an independent. Based on his record, I’d happily vote for him again. But after tonight, I don’t think anyone can reasonably conclude that he’s up to doing this for another four years.
I’d still vote for him against Trump because while I’m worried about Biden’s mental acuity, I still trust his judgement and his team to be effective at leading this country. Trump is an unserious, incompetent, misinformed, divisive, indecent, lawless narcissist who's chaotic first term was an embarrassment that only avoided being catastrophic because he was actively undermined by responsible people in his administration who kept things from going entirely off the rails. But that almost certainly will not be the case in a second term, and I worry the consequences would be dire. I remain first and foremost an anti-Trump voter. But after tonight I don’t think it matters. I’ll be surprised if post-debate polls don’t show Trump with at least a 5-point lead, and while there’s still months to the election, a Biden victory is looking very unlikely at this point.
I don’t think Biden is senile. Hidden in his poorly delivered, hard-to-follow and gaffe-filled answers were reasonable responses that reflected a person who understood what he was asked and knew how to answer. But while he was never a strong debater, tonight showed a concerning lack of mental sharpness. And why not - he’s 81! But he and the entire Democratic party stand at a crossroads. Do they stick with an old man who cannot honestly say he has what it takes to do the hardest job in the world for another 4 years, but is too stubborn to admit it? Or do they make the tough call to change horses at the eleventh hour?
It wouldn’t be easy, but a part of me wonders if maybe that would be the best outcome. We’d have avoided a risky Democratic primary which may have either nominated Kamala Harris or someone even more progressive who would have severe electoral vulnerabilities in an environment where the Democratic brand is already tainted by its far-left extreme. Rather, delegates at the Democratic convention could hash out across multiple rounds which last-minute candidate should replace Biden on the ticket, with the full knowledge that electability is the primary consideration because the opponent is Donald Trump. There are some great Democratic governors to choose from. Jared Polis of Colorado is particularly intriguing as an articulate, libertarian-ish centrist, though certainly not the only one (please not Gavin Newsom, though). Honestly, it seems like almost anyone younger than 70 who has won a state-wide election in a purple-ish state would have a better chance than Biden at this point.
This would be a long shot. It probably won’t happen. And it’s always easy to over-react to singular events like debates. Supposedly Biden had a cold, so maybe this was a one-off and he’ll be better in the future. But it’s not unreasonable for Americans to be disgusted with both parties for the candidates they’re offering, and I really hope tonight was a wake-up call for the Democrats. And as much as I hate to admit it, it was a bit of a vindication of what No Labels was up to.