Centrism Ascendant
The Trump era has been a tough time to be in the political center. The Republican party has spent the last 8 years abandoning its principles in service of Donald Trump and other unserious attention-seekers. In the process they have been transformed into a party that mirrors the grievance-filled apocalyptic faux-populism of their standard-bearer and jettisoned any semblance of a vetting process for those welcomed into their coalition. Hence, the party of pro-life evangelicals is also the party that invited Kid Rock and an influencer with an OnlyFans account to present at their convention. Not in attendance? Former party leaders Mike Pence, George Bush, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan and Dick Cheney (none of whom have endorsed Trump, and some of whom have said they would not vote for him).
The Democratic party, meanwhile, spent much of the last 8 years ceding ground to their own extremes. After the optimism of Obama’s victories, Trump's win was a traumatic event that caused many to question what they believed about America. Opposition and shock at his behavior led some to embrace criticisms of America like those promoted by the New York Times’ 1619 Project and to elevate previously niche academic concepts like critical race theory to cultural prominence. The horrific murder of George Floyd, in the midst of a politicized pandemic that forced everyone to publicly advertise their leanings by whether they wore a mask, put these trends into overdrive. Riots coupled with calls to defund the police scrambled people's beliefs about who cared about upholding the law. It all added up to a set of messages that, well-meaning though they were, made most normal Americans feel unsettled and fearful about what the future held.
In the midst of this maelstrom, however, the Democrats managed to nominate Joe Biden. Biden was not the first or fifth choice of the woke left, but enough desperate Americans voted for him - first in the primary, then in the general - to grant him his lifelong dream of becoming President. But rather than usher in a period of normalcy as his voters sought, the ensuing four years were beset by their own challenges. Republicans' failure to reckon with January 6 meant the party continued its devolution into little more than a conspiracy-ridden support group for Trump's fragile ego. Severe disruptions of supply chains during the pandemic, coupled with generous relief payments by both administrations, created the conditions for a spike in inflation that has taken a while to ease (though it was worse in many other countries). And despite Biden's moderate reputation, he spent the first couple years of his administration shambolically executing Trump's promise to leave Afghanistan and wrangling with his own party over doomed policy proposals endorsed by the progressive wing. Meanwhile, the American left continued to exert influence on American culture through a sudden obsession with gender-affirming care for minors, a refusal to take seriously the border crisis, and an emphasis on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion policies across the private sector and academia which turned out to be more about virtue signaling than anything else.
Donald Trump's cruise to victory in the Republican primary and Joe Biden's decision to run for a second term despite his advanced age and declining popularity meant that the next four years were looking to be a continuation of this period of culture wars, political division, and far-left and far-right influence on the major parties. While Joe Biden managed some significant and largely bipartisan achievements - from supporting Ukraine to passing bills on infrastructure, domestic manufacturing, climate and drug prices - these did virtually nothing to change the prevailing mood in the country. Not even easing inflation, low unemployment and a stock market recovery seemed to be making a dent. The majority of Americans didn't want to vote for Biden or Trump, yet that was the choice the major parties were giving them, again.
It's hard to believe that this was the state of things just over one month ago. Biden's disastrous debate performance and the successful pressure campaign to get him to withdraw created what appears to have been the perfect conditions for the Democratic party to transform itself almost overnight. The Republicans' refusal to do what was in both America's and their own best interest by ditching Trump meant they were now the party with the old, unpopular, backward-looking candidate. The Democrats, on the other hand, were freed to suddenly elevate the many impressive, popular and normal talents that had previously been largely unseen and unheard on the national stage. First among these, to the surprise of many (including me), has been Kamala Harris.
It's important to note that while Harris has been genuinely impressive since she became the immediate presumptive replacement to Biden, she also has benefitted from a blitz coronation that bypassed the usual primary brawl that candidates must usually endure. In this way she managed to avoid a process that often exposes intra-party divisions and creates opportunities for missteps, and some of this is bound to happen eventually. But every test she's faced so far, she has passed with flying colors. Her speech at the Democratic national convention this week demonstrated that she seems to be the real deal. If you haven’t already, I really encourage you to watch it (don’t worry, it’s half as long as Trump’s was).
But while I share the relief of so many Americans that I won't need to vote for a convicted felon or someone who is clearly too old to do the job for another 4 years, the most impressive (and exciting) aspect of the Democrats' recent metamorphosis has been what appears to be an almost complete abandonment, if not repudiation, of the far-left rhetoric and policies that dominated Democratic discourse for nearly this entire period. In Harris’s speech:
There was no mention of decriminalizing illegal border crossing, rather Harris promised to resurrect and sign the bi-partisan border bill negotiated with Sen. Langford.
There was no mention of defunding the police, rather Harris spoke movingly of her decision to be a prosecutor to go after people like the stepfather that was sexually abusing her friend.
There was no description of abortion opponents wanting to control women’s bodies, but rather an emphasis on rolling back laws that have endangered women experiencing ectopic pregnancies and other complications.
There was no mention of diversity, equity or inclusion, but an emphasis on opportunity.
There was no mention of settler colonialism in Gaza, but rather a full-throated denouncement of Hamas’s terrorist acts and a commitment to defend Israel, balanced with a heartfelt plea for the end of hostilities and the protection of Palestinian civilians.
There was no promise of single-payer health insurance, but a call for middle-class tax cuts.
There was not even a bold plan to fight climate change, but rather a focus on pro-growth policies.
Certainly, a big part of this shift in language is a desire to win, and a realization that DEI policies, defund the police rhetoric, arguments over gender-affirming care for minors, denigration of America, and a de-growth approach to the climate crisis has done great damage to their brand across a large swath of Americans. Including, crucially, working-class and minority constituencies that used to be critical to their electoral success. This does not mean that these ideas no longer have sway in the Democratic party, or that they won't make up part of their agenda, but it is nonetheless significant that they are no longer even mentioned and have been replaced with a forceful endorsement of ideas that they had previously ceded to the right: patriotism, prosperity, rule of law, freedom and family values.
It really feels like centrism and "popularism" (ie, promoting policies that are broadly popular rather than driven by activists) is having a moment in the Democratic party. Now, the Trump campaign has ham-handedly tried to do a bit of this as well by distancing itself from Project 2025 and denying any intent to pass a national abortion ban. But while Trump has always been prone to this - after all, policy consistency has hardly been a feature of his political career - this shift from Democrats feels more significant.
Ultimately, I think it partially comes down to the fact that the Republican party has been so inhospitable to true conservatives that many have essentially become part of the Democratic coalition. This doesn't mean the Democratic party is now a conservative party, or that these conservatives are now Democrats. But as Republicans like Adam Kinsinger and Geoff Duncan (video below) said at the DNC, there is currently only one party that respects the constitution, stands by our allies, is committed to the rule of law and free and fair elections, and is trying to do what's best for the whole country (even if we may disagree about the means). Those fundamental values must come first, as without them we lose the ability to debate about policy differences.
Both Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have been portrayed by the right as far-left liberals. And they have some reason. Harris took a lot of left-wing positions in an attempt to win support in a 2019 primary that was dominated by progressive purity tests. Walz signed a lot of liberal legislation as Governor of Minnesota. But both previously had more moderate records, Harris as a tough-on-crime prosecutor and Walz as a representative of a conservative House district. I think the takeaway about both of them is not that they're die-hard progressives, but that they're Democratic politicians. Neither progressives nor moderates will find in them unwavering advocates for their policy preferences. Rather, they follow in the footsteps of Joe Biden, who also had a knack for hewing to the center of his party, wherever that was. Ideological purists will complain, but it should provide some comfort to those worried about them auguring a far-left turn in American politics. Instead, I see them as largely pragmatic and adaptable to what a moderating Democratic party and an American majority wants. After a period dominated by the most hard-core, anti-compromise activists on both sides, this would be a welcome change.
Yet while they may be willing to adjust their policies according to the situation, I do get the sense that both Harris and Walz have core values that align with most Americans. Both value hard work, responsibility, service, fairness and the American dream. And on foreign policy, I believe Harris's time in the Biden White House was a uniquely valuable opportunity to learn from someone steeped in the complexities of the world, a belief that America should be a force for good, and a commitment to liberal democracy.
I know that many conservatives, particularly Christians, will find the idea of voting for a pro-choice Democrat hard to stomach. In response, I'd make two points.
The first echoes this argument by conservative columnist David French:
I'm not going to argue that on the morality of abortion itself, the Democrats are more aligned with those who believe abortion to be murder. They don't see it this way, and that’s not changing any time soon. But on all of the attendant issues around that fundamental disagreement, today's Democratic party is more consistently pro-life than the Republicans. They advocate for policies that support families raising children like the Child Tax Credit, which makes it easier for pregnant women to decide to keep their children. They're for expanded access to health care, for preserving IVF, for easy access to contraception to prevent unwanted pregnancies, and for making sure that pregnant women with life-threatening complications can receive the care they need. Correlation is not causation, but it's important for anyone who considers themselves pro-life to consider why abortions have risen for the first time in decades during the Trump administration and after the overturning of Roe. The Republican approach of saving babies by restricting the supply of abortion doesn't seem to be working. Perhaps we should return to the Democratic approach that - intentionally or not - appears to have the effect of reducing demand.
My second point is inspired by this:
A lot of commentators in the media got into an uproar over this because they interpreted it as Trump saying he’ll basically abolish elections after he gets elected. Now, Trump has proven that we cannot take for granted his willingness to accept unfavorable election results, but that's not what I think he was saying here. Rather, he was saying what most Never Trumpers have known since the beginning: Trump sees pandering to Christians as nothing more than a means to an end. He has no commitment to them, nor does he share their beliefs or values. Just look at how he conducts himself. This quote is just Trump saying "the quiet part out loud" - that once Christians re-elect him, he no longer has a use for them. He doesn't care whether or how they vote once he gets what he needs. And as such, I think it's quite naïve for Christians to think that he will see a need to promote their causes while in office. Case in point (posted Aug. 23, 2024):
This iteration of the Republican party has remained electorally viable than I expected, but it's decline is unmistakable. When your party convention features scenes that could have come from the movie Idiocracy, you're not a serious governing entity anymore.
Tiktok failed to load.Enable 3rd party cookies or use another browser
The Republican party is no longer a conservative party, and while that label may not apply to the Democrats either, they’re at least making a serious play for the center. I don’t know how Kamala Harris will govern, but I trust her character and qualifications far more than I do Donald Trump’s. I hope for the future of conservatism and this country that the Democrats are rewarded for their moderation and that the Republican party continues to lose relevance until it either embraces decency, honesty and pragmatism, or is replaced by a party that does. Until then, the Democratic party is showing itself to be a tent big enough to welcome those on the center-right who yearn to turn the page on Trumpism and embrace a patriotic, positive, clear-eyed and competent vision for America. As an independent, I hesitate to declare allegiance to any political party, but whereas before I felt like an outsider crashing the Democrat’s party, I’m now starting to feel welcome.