I’ve been noting for a while how I believed that the most positive outcome of a Trump 2.0 administration is that America gets to experience the full effects of electing someone who is unfit, unserious and unmoored from reality. Thanks to the speed at which this administration has taken control of the levels of power and the lack of any resistance from traditional Republicans, I believe we’re going to experience those effects even faster than I had anticipated. It should come as no surprise that I see a lot to worry about in this, and lasting consequences. But it also may have been necessary. The populist, anti-establishment currents that fueled the MAGA movement were not going to go away with more-of-the-same Democratic leadership. A Harris presidency would not be dramatically crashing markets or upending decades of American international leadership or gutting the Federal bureaucracy. But it also would not be invalidating the untested ideas of those who believe in Trump’s anti-establishment, expertise-skeptical “America First” agenda. Nor would it be forcing Democrats to come to grips with their own missteps. It’d just postpone the inevitable.
If we assume that “America First” ideas were not going to go away on their own, then we should perhaps be grateful that they’re going to get a full, unadulterated chance to prove themselves, by someone guaranteed to try them in the most chaotic and incompetent way possible. I’d honestly be even more worried about a President Tucker Carlson or J.D. Vance than Trump, and my source of optimism is that the Trump administration will fail so spectacularly as to prompt a significant backlash against this entire ideology which inoculates us against it in the future. I have more hope that we’ll be able to recover from a dramatic crash than a slower, more methodical, undermining of classical liberalism that I believe such leaders would have been able to achieve, with potentially worse long-term effects.
This was never a risk I thought worth taking, of course. I’m still very worried about the damage that can be done over the next four years, and their longer-term effects. Let’s consider what those might be.
Economic Uncertainty
The most obvious consequence we’re seeing right now is the shakiness of the stock market, which unlike most other systems, responds almost instantaneously to new information. The market’s instability is not merely a reaction to fears about increased inefficiency and costs caused by trade protectionism but is perhaps even more driven by the incredibly unpredictable nature of these moves. Our trade policy is changing daily - even hourly - in response to the whims of a single person who is notoriously emotional in their decision-making. Even if the end result is no new tariffs (unlikely), the fact that companies can’t anticipate this means they’re just going to slow down investments and pause planning until the picture becomes clearer. Just as an individual worried about losing their job is going to defer big purchases and avoid taking financial risks, a company unsure about the costs of their inputs or the size of their customer base is going to take fewer risks. And risk-taking is the source of the U.S. economy’s world-leading dynamism.
One reason I’m less concerned about our trade policy shenanigans is that they’re somewhat reversable and may be temporary. If the end result is a re-re-negotiation of NAFTA with a few more minor concessions from our trade partners than we achieved the last time, things may ultimately settle down. But it’s also possible he’s serious this time and really believes this is necessary pain in order to establish a mercantilist system in which we make all of our own stuff, even if we’re not good or efficient at it.
Regardless of the actual goals or final policy outcome, the damage to our reputation as a predictable, good-faith negotiator in international trade will be significant. Foreign companies will have learned that integrating supply chains with the United States is risky. They’ll begin looking to hedge their bets by seeking alternative trade partners which over time will reduce our importance in the world economy and lessen our influence and prosperity, and we’ll likely feel some of these effects within the next four years.
Frenemies
Potentially more damaging than the unpredictability of our trade policy is the rhetoric that’s going with it. These tariffs and economic threats are not made with careful diplomacy that emphasizes our friendship with neighbors like Canada and Mexico while justifying these moves on the grounds that it’s necessary to protect domestic industries or revive our economy. These arguments may not make much economic sense, but they’d at least be understandable. Canada, for example, places tariffs on some of their exports to protect domestic agriculture. But that’s not what we’re doing. Instead, we’re making wild statements about annexation in order to get a reprieve for a 25% surcharge on electricity exports (which was only imposed in response to our unprovoked across-the-board tariffs). We’re haphazardly imposing ruinous costs on one of our closest allies just because they depend more on us than we do on them, and we think we can get away with it.
The effect is not only economic harm to both sides, but a real rift in our formerly warm relationship. Almost as many Canadians now view the U.S. as an enemy than a friend as a result of these actions and have cheered the removal of American products from store shelves and rallied behind politicians who oppose Trump. Trump is making Canadian liberals and patriotism great again, but none of this is good for America.
This isn’t just about Canada. We’re pissing off Greenland and Denmark. We’re casting doubt on our commitment to European security. We’re a petulant teenager lashing out at perceived unfairness and slights without realizing that it’s just going to make us weaker and alone. It’s incredibly short-sighted, but not surprising for a man whose business career is based on such behavior. But while there may always be another contractor to work on a hotel despite you ripping off the last one, there’s not another country just waiting to do for us what longtime allies and trade partners like Canada and Europe have done.
I do believe most of these relationships can be repaired by a future President, but it’ll be a long time before they forget the betrayal. As with trade, we may resume cordial relations, but the trust built over decades which enabled critically important cooperation on things like intelligence sharing will take a lot longer to rebuild. It’ll be on American voters to prove that we won’t make a mistake like this again for a long time.
Corruption & Incompetence
It’s hard to summarize the amount of corruption that has seeped into our federal government, and the norms that have been trashed. Trump is filming a literal advertisement for his biggest donor on the White House lawn, hawking crypto assets that he and his family are invested in (and likely profiting from advance knowledge of his announcements), dragging its feet on responding to court orders, taking little time to decide on where to cut important Federal agencies, and installing unqualified TV and radio hosts for critically important jobs, including in national defense. The danger here is twofold.
The immediate danger is the effect this will have on our ability to prevent and respond to serious crises (not to mention maintain basic functions Americans depend on). Do we really think that inexperienced, culture-war focused leadership and the removal of career professionals will make us more prepared for a terrorist attack, pandemic, natural disaster, or financial crisis? To better understand the serious - potentially even catastrophic - risk here, I recommend this article in The Atlantic. And of course, while such programs can be rebuilt, that will take time. The brain drain is a real problem in both the short and medium term.
The longer-term effect is the erosion of our system of government. The Trump era has exposed how much of our system has depended on norms or rules that depend on the different branches of government defending their own power. The surrender of congressional Republicans has neutered Congress as a check on executive overreach, and while the Supreme Court is not entirely in the tank for Trump despite his nomination of three Justices, there are real worries about enforcement when organizations like the FBI are led by partisan loyalists like Kash Patel.
Given the damage that has been done in just two months, it’s hard to imagine where we’ll be in four years. I haven’t given up on the U.S. continuing to have relatively free and fair elections and an opportunity to roll many of these changes back, but I think anyone who isn’t concerned about the rule of law and the preservation of our Constitution order isn’t paying enough attention. We also shouldn’t ignore the importance of the opposition choosing leaders who will resist the temptation to take advantage of this newfound executive power and just abuse it in a different way. Our system is in clear need of reform to restore checks and balances, and it’ll be critically important that the next administration prioritizes this. The good thing about how fast this is happening is many of us still remember and appreciate how things are supposed to work. It’s on us to choose leaders who do too.
My prayer for this week is that Americans do not ignore the suffering this administration's policies are inflicting on people at home and abroad, look for opportunities to help those most affected, and support kind and good representatives who will uphold the Constitution in the future.