Nauseously Optimistic
Credit to
for introducing me to that term - it perfectly describes how I’m feeling about this election. I’m pretty terrified about what could happen if Trump wins, and that possibility is very real. But I also have a feeling he won’t.If I had to put probabilities on outcomes, I’d say something like this:
20%: Harris wins handily (sweeps all or nearly all swing states, Allred wins in Texas and Dems keep Senate).
40%: Harris wins narrowly (wins by more than 1 swing state but not all, Dems lose Senate).
30%: Trump wins narrowly (wins by more than 1 swing state but not all).
5%: Trump wins handily (sweeps all or nearly all swing states).
5%: Extremely narrow result (either a tie or narrow single-state win by either, like 2000). In this case I expect Trump to become president given Republicans’ demonstrated willingness in 2020 to lie and abuse the rules even in not-very-close elections, and their hold of the House in the event of a tie.
A 40% chance of Trump winning is still high enough to give me anxiety, but I do think that Harris is the favorite, and that she has a significantly higher chance of surprising to the upside. Trump has never won the popular vote, lost once already, has a much lower favorability rating, has not been trying to appeal to moderate or swing voters in the final weeks, and while he is able to drive turn-out among low-propensity voters more effectively than regular Republicans, regular MAGA Republicans have consistently underperformed since 2020 due in part to Dobbs but also by being generally extreme. Trump’s cultish following does make him unique, but Harris just seems to me the obviously stronger candidate with the more effective campaign. There’s also some evidence in the last week that the momentum favors her, which shouldn’t be surprising given the contrast in their closing arguments (more on this below). Women in particular are heavily favoring Harris this cycle, and so far have been turning out at higher rates.
Start the Steal
Despite my limited optimism, the polls are still saying this is a coin-flip. And even if Harris wins (by any plausible margin), we can expect Trump and his supporters to deny the results in a repeat of their 2020 strategy. He and his surrogates have already been building expectations for an easy win and making false claims of fraud so we should expect a repeat of 2020’s ironically named “stop the steal” effort. Here’s Tucker Carlson at Trump’s Madison Square Garden “closing argument” rally:
The Trump campaign has been ridiculing Harris’s intelligence and competence in order to make it seem unbelievable to their supporters that she could win. That’s pretty hard to square with her more-than-competent performances in every make-or-break performance she’s had in this short campaign, though. She delivered a powerful DNC speech, played Trump like a drum at the debate, and finally this (note the reference to America’s founding in, ahem, 1776):
Maybe Tucker doesn’t see anything impressive there, but 75,000 people - the largest crowd ever to assemble at the Ellipse - did. Harris likely will get 85m votes, and whether or not that’s enough to win the electoral college, it won’t be because Democrats cheated. It’ll be because Harris has run as a unifying moderate patriot, while Trump has run as this (and worse):
Harris didn’t pull any punches in her description of Trump either, but rather than encourage her audience to fear and view the other side as the “enemy,” she segued into this:
I don’t know who will win next week, but if it’s Harris, it shouldn’t come as a surprise. While this race has been close, there is evidence that the contrast between the candidates’ closing arguments at Madison Square Garden and the Ellipse is breaking through and shifting the momentum in Harris’ favor at the last minute. If Harris wins by substantial margins - which might seem unlikely based on current polls but would not be particularly unusual relative to past polling misses - that should not be unbelievable either.
Here’s an excellent analysis of recent events and the state of the race, from anti-Trump, former Republicans
and Bill Kristol:I share all of this prior to November 5 to counteract the inevitable claims from Trump world that he was cheated, and their attempts to again sow doubt in the integrity of our elections and overturn unfavorable results. If Trump loses, the obvious explanation won’t be that the election was stolen. It will be that America paid attention to the candidates’ closing arguments and decided they preferred a positive, unifying message to divisive demagoguery.
No Excuses
The clarity of Trump and Harris’ closing arguments serves as an important reminder that if Trump does win, the choice before voters was clear, and the consequences predictable. Unlike previous campaigns where Trump moderated his tone and made attempts to reassure moderates and skeptical conservatives by signaling that he’d appoint serious, competent people to his cabinet, Trump has doubled down on the nativist rhetoric, the wild promises to punish his enemies, and the openly racist comments about immigrants “poisoning the blood” of the nation. He has elevated and prominently featured people like Stephen Miller:
Note the anger and fear-mongering about America as a hellscape overrun by gangs, the assertion that Trump’s assassination attempts were perpetrated by a nebulous “they” despite the clear evidence that those individuals were disturbed loners with no clear political ties, and the statement that “America is for Americans, and Americans only!” This is the sort of people we can expect to wield power in a second Trump administration.
If the result is an inhumane and disruptive deportation regime that divides families (or doesn’t) and accidentally includes legal residents and even citizens, we should not be surprised. If the result is a systematic undermining of our legal system as he pardons convicted criminals, fires Federal prosecutors pursuing him for past lawless behavior (unlike Biden who kept the prosecutor pursuing his own son) and conducts even more blatantly illegal activity thanks to his newfound immunity, we should not be surprised. If he brings about higher prices through tariffs and the removal of people who build our houses, harvest our crops and do countless other difficult jobs, we should not be surprised. If he ushers in an era of flagrant crony capitalism in which economic policy favors his most ardent political supporters, we should not be surprised. If he sides with Putin in handing over Ukranian territory, undermines NATO, and reverses America’s longstanding tradition of standing with democratic allies, we should not be surprised.
He has been open about all of this. If Americans elect him to do what he’s been plainly telling them he will do, they will have no excuses if that’s what he does.
Conservatism at Stake
One of my favorite opinion writers these days is Peter Wehner over at The Atlantic. Like David French who I’ve referenced many times, Wehner is a conservative Christian who has held fast to his principles and beliefs despite the political right’s abandonment of them. His closing argument about this election is among the best I’ve read, and highly recommended especially for conservatives. He makes the case that a Trump victory would be disastrous for conservative principles, and I agree. His conclusion:
If Trump wins the presidency again, conservatism will be homeless, a philosophy without a party, probably for at least a generation. And the damage to America, the nation Republicans claim to love, will be incalculable, perhaps irreversible. The stakes are that high.
Harris becoming president may not be the best thing that could happen to conservatism. But if she becomes president, she will have prevented the worst thing that could happen to conservatism and, much more important, to the country.
Read the whole thing (and vote!).